- Ohio State fans don’t want to hear this, because losing four straight to Michigan cuts deep, but it could be worse. Just ask USC about Lincoln Riley.
- Buckeyes retain lofty odds to win national championship, even after losing to Michigan.
- NIL changed college sports forever, but didn’t change recruiting rankings.
You could be a Southern California fan, stuck with Lincoln Riley.
This past week reiterated the roller-coaster experience of employing Day.
On Saturday, Day seemed doomed. He lost, at home, to the worst non-COVID team forged in Ann Arbor since Brady Hoke ran the program, then watched dumbfounded as his Buckeyes players got into a postgame donnybrook with the Wolverines.
Day looked lost, befuddled, stupefied, choose your adjective.
By Wednesday, he’d transformed into Dr. Jekyll, signing a national top-five recruiting class for the sixth year in a row.
Day’s haul included Tavien St. Clair, a five-star quarterback from Ohio, the type of quarterback who could help the Buckeyes maybe beat Michigan again someday.
Day and Ohio State form a combination that always will produce one of the nation’s most talented rosters. He’ll win nearly all of his games, and he’ll break fans’ hearts in the worst way, once or twice a season. Jekyll, meet Hyde, and Ohio State fans are sick of getting their hopes up only to watch Michigan men plant their flag in the Horseshoe.
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But, the Buckeyes’ hopes aren’t dashed just yet, because the 12-team playoff affords Day the opportunity to win the national championship without beating Wolverines. Throughout most of the first 11 games, the Buckeyes looked like national championship material, and oddsmakers give Ohio State the third-best odds of winning the title.
Not bad for a team that mustered 252 yards against Michigan.
Two years ago, Day came as close to winning a national championship as he ever has. The Buckeyes lost by 22 points to Michigan in 2022, slipped in through the playoff’s back door, then lost to the nation’s best team, Georgia, in a game decided on the final play. If the Buckeyes convert their last-second field goal that night, they go on to beat TCU in the national championship.
That’s not an excuse for Day, but rather a reminder that the Buckeyes are down, but not out.
Not with this roster.
“We have plenty of good enough players to (still win the national championship),’ Day said this week.
Ohio State’s talent isn’t under the microscope, but Day will be if he can’t achieve something of substance with this group.
Oh, because I mentioned Riley, how about the Big Ten’s other $10 million-a-year man?
Riley’s signing class ranks No. 13 nationally, which checks in behind Oregon, Ohio State and Michigan within the conference. Riley’s recruiting couldn’t maintain the pace of his first two ballyhooed classes, back when most of us thought he’d be a boon for the Trojans and that USC would capitalize on NIL.
You won’t find national championship odds next to the Trojans, who are 6-6.
Of course, disgruntled Ohio State fans don’t want to swap Day for Riley. They just want to swap him for someone else, anyone else who might beat Michigan.
Tread carefully.
Maybe, Ohio State would hire the next wunderkind, like Oregon did with Dan Lanning, or, perhaps, a big name would be interested.
Former NFL coach and Buckeyes alumnus Mike Vrabel is without a head coaching job. Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman also played for Ohio State.
Would either say yes?
Hard telling, but, Ohio State remains an elite job, and the Buckeyes would attract good candidates if the job opened this winter. Ohio State blesses Day with great resources. The next coach would be well-resourced, too.
Ohio State fans aren’t wrong to expect more than Day’s 1-4 record vs. Michigan, and if Day can’t beat the Wolverines or reach the national title game with a roster that reportedly earned $20 million in NIL money, then it’s absolutely fair to ask whether it’s time to try something else.
Riley’s experience at USC, though, shows there’s no such thing as a slam-dunk hire. As Day signs another premier recruiting class and heads to the playoff, the Trojans march on in mediocrity, strapped to a $10 million-a-year bust.
Here’s what else I’m musing in this “Topp Rope” view of college football:
NIL came, and recruiting rankings stayed the same
Remember that narrative from a few years ago, that the NIL revolution wielded the power to turn the recruiting rankings on their head, and that traditional powers might struggle to keep up with programs rolling in new riches?
Well, that narrative died on the vine.
Three years ago, amid the first year of NIL, Texas A&M shot in like a comet soaked in oil money and signed the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class.
Also that year, No. 1 overall recruit Travis Hunter – ever heard of him? – signed with Jackson State of the Championship Subdivision to play for coach Deion Sanders.
Those were peculiarities, although it wasn’t entirely out of left field that Texas A&M signed a good class. Even before NIL, the Aggies had been gathering recruiting momentum. And Hunter had his reasons beyond NIL to want to play for the magnetic Sanders, the former two-sport star who allowed Hunter to play on both sides of the ball.
In any case, let’s check out this year’s top 10 signing classes, as ranked by the 247Sports composite: Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, Auburn, Michigan, LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee.
Dial back the clock 10 years ago, and seven of those 10 schools signed top-10 classes, while Texas A&M signed the No. 11 class, and Oregon’s class ranked 16th. Michigan was the only team signing a top-10 class this year that did not rank within the top 20 a decade ago. That’s because the Wolverines had undergone a coaching change.
Point being, NIL changed everything for athletes profiting off their abilities and their fame. For recruiting rankings, it changed very little.
Email of the week
Rick writes: Speaking of ‘elite’ teams, who would you say is elite in the SEC, Blake? I would argue no one. Georgia and Tennessee might come the closest – but I would call them far short of elite, especially Georgia.
My response: Let’s extend this exercise beyond the SEC’s borders. I’ve compiled the list of elite college football teams this year, and the list is as follows: .
Did I miss anyone?
Parity rules this season – or, at least, more parity than we’re used to in college football. Highly entertaining, and the perfect season for a 12-team, four-round playoff.
Paul writes: Alabama earned its status as a “benefit of the doubt getter” by a hundred years of winning national championships. … As usual, the winners laughed and told jokes while the losers cried.
My response: Yes, even if the exploits of yesteryear’s stars have little to do with this particular team, the events of the past wield power over decisions in the present.
Three and out
1. For the second consecutive year, Oklahoma will lose its starting quarterback to the transfer portal, with Jackson Arnold headed for the exit, The Oklahoman reported. Sooners coach Brent Venables contends for the No. 1 spot on a crowded SEC hot-seat list entering 2025.
2. As I mull whether to place Colorado’s Hunter or Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty atop my Heisman Trophy ballot, here’s another question: Who goes third? I’ll monitor Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel in the Big Ten championship game Saturday for an opening on my ballot that remains up for grabs.
3. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark recently bemoaned that the CFP selection committee values “logos versus résumés.” Welcome to college football, Mr. Yormark. You still seem new here. And, by the way, the Big 12 would be a one-bid league even if the committee valued résumés over logos.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. The ‘Topp Rope’ is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
