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I had no idea the Fed could be such expert wafflers. But, as each month passes, it’s becoming clearer. The overall stock market trend, despite all the back-and-forth, yo-yo Fed decisions over the past 6 months, remains to the upside. Need proof? Check out this weekly S&P 500 chart for the past year:

Now, if you weren’t aware of any news, would you think any differently about this pullback to the 20-week EMA than prior tests to the same level? There was a volume spike, but keep in mind it was December monthly options expiration week. Quad-witching months (March, June, September, and December) typically are accompanied by heavier volume. The Friday market recovery occurred before any significant breakdown on this chart, which I find bullish. I view the stock market action from December 21st through December 31st to be the period where we normally see a “Santa Claus rally” – more on that below.

The Fed has made it clear in the past that they’ve been “data-dependent.” In the latest FOMC policy decision and subsequent press conference, however, Fed Chief Powell indicated that they’ve cut the number of anticipated rate cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2, because committee members feel that core inflation could be higher than they previously thought back in September, when the first rate cut was announced.

Here’s a problem I have, though. On Thursday, November 14th, the Associated Press reported the following:

The Fed acknowledged in this article that inflation remained persistent and above the Fed’s target 2% level. That day, Powell suggested that inflation may remain stuck somewhat above the Fed’s target level in coming months. But he reiterated that inflation should eventually decline. Given those November 14th remarks, if the Fed was concerned about inflation remaining elevated, then why not change their tune on 2025 interest rate cuts at the November 6-7 Fed meeting. If they’re truly “data dependent”, then what data changed from November 14th until the next Fed meeting on December 17-18 to prompt 2025 interest rate policy change?

Can I have a waffle, please?

Odds of a Santa Claus Rally

Again, I consider the Santa Claus rally to be from December 21st through December 31st, so let’s look at how many times this period has actually moved higher:

  • S&P 500: 58 of the last 74 years since 1950 (annualized return: +40.50%)
  • NASDAQ: 43 of the last 53 years since 1971 (annualized return: +61.80%)
  • Russell 2000: 31 of the last 37 years since 1987 (annualized return: +64.57%)

Based upon history, the odds of a Santa Claus rally is 78.4%, 81.1%, and 83.8% on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, respectively. And you can see the annualized return for this period in the parenthesis above. I’d say there’s a ton of historical performance to suggest the odds that we’ll rally from here until year end are rather strong.

Nothing is ever a guarantee, however.

Max Pain

In my opinion, the media is promoting the idea that inflation is re-igniting and that the Fed is becoming more hawkish. I believe last week’s selling is due to EXACTLY what I talked about with our EarningsBeats.com members during our December Max Pain event on Tuesday. There was a TON of net in-the-money call premium and the big Wall Street firms aided their market-making units by telling us how bad the Fed’s actions and words are for the stock market. That Wednesday drop saved market makers an absolute FORTUNE. We pointed out to our members the downside market risk that existed, because of max pain. A day later, VOILA! It’s magic! The crazy afternoon selling was panicked selling at its finest, with the Volatility Index (VIX) soaring an astounding 74% in 2 hours! On Thursday and Friday, the VIX retreated back into the 18s (from 28) as if nothing ever happened.

There’s a reason why I preach every single month about options expiration and this was just another example of legalized thievery by the market makers. Let’s give them another golf clap.

MarketVision 2025

It’s almost time for my 2025 forecast, which will be a big part of our Saturday, January 4, 2025, 10:00am ET event. This year’s MV event, “The Year of Diverging Returns”, will feature myself and David Keller, President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research. Many of you know Dave from StockCharts and also from his Market Misbehavior podcast. I’m looking forward to having Dave join me as we dissect what we believe is likely to transpire in 2025. For more information on the event and to register, CLICK HERE!

Happy holidays and I hope to see you there!

Tom

The cover had already been designed, with Rickey Henderson striking that familiar, self-assured pose.

The problem was, the subject of the cover story didn’t realize he would be the face of the first issue of USA TODAY Baseball Weekly.

It was spring training 1991. Social media, smart phones and the internet didn’t exist.

Our writer, Tim Wendel, arrived in Arizona without realizing Henderson had blamed the media for the boos he was hearing from crowds. The reigning American League MVP wanted to renegotiate his contract.

“I’m saying, ‘Yeah, the first cover’s gonna be Rickey, so I’m gonna do Rickey,’ ” Wendel recalled telling other baseball writers he knew, “and almost to a person, everybody I ran into went, ‘Oooh, good luck with that. He’s not talking to anybody.’ And I’m going, ‘Uh oh.’ ”

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Henderson, who died Friday at age 65, was one of the faces of baseball in 1991 as he pursued Lou Brock’s career stolen base record he would eclipse that season.

Who better to be the face of USA TODAY’s baseball-only publication? Wendel had to have him.

When Henderson was pulled from a game in the middle innings, Wendel snuck away from the other writers in the press box and down to the clubhouse at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. With his notebook in his back pocket, he saw Henderson coming around a corner with a towel around his waist.

Henderson tried to walk away as Wendel shouted, “Rickey!”

“I just want to talk about you and Brock’s all-time stolen base record,” Wendel told him, using “USA TODAY” as his publication.

“Just about Rickey and Lou?” Henderson replied.

Henderson talked, and not just about Brock. He was making about $3 million a year, according to the story Wendel would write, not even in the majors’ top 25 in those days and fourth-best on the A’s.

“I ask the people who boo me,” he told Wendel, ‘ ‘What would you think if where you work they paid somebody more who was doing less than you?’ You’d be upset about it. Anybody wants to work at a place where they respect you and pay you well.”

His interview helped launch a publication that would become an institution within the sport for not only its box scores, but its statistics, fantasy baseball coverage and in-depth player profiles. The first issue debuted, with the Henderson cover, with an on-sale date of April 4-11, 1991.

Over the years, we have evolved into Sports Weekly, adding coverage (and box scores) for football, basketball and hockey. Sports Weekly is now in its 34th year of publication.

From 2021: Baseball (now Sports) Weekly still going strong after 30 years

Its origins began during an area when athletes were often keenly aware when they appeared in print.

“This should be my golden moment,” Henderson said in the story for the first issue, “but I’ve gotten so much heat about my contract, I’m not thinking about Lou Brock or his record. This is maybe the most important thing of my life. What I’ve played 13 years for. But with all this other stuff going on, breaking Brock’s record could be kind of hollow.”

According to the story, Brock saw Henderson play at Boston’s Fenway part during Henderson’s second full year in the majors and told him: “Rickey, you’re going to be the one.”

If you watched him play in those days, stealing two bases after a walk or single before you could settle into your seat, you couldn’t help but feel the same way. He seemed born to steal bases.

Wendel learned that when Henderson was growing up, he was told to come home with a dirty uniform or else his mom wouldn’t believe he had gone to a game. If he hadn’t gotten on base during the game, he would go back out to the field and slide.

“I’ve changed the game,” he told Wendel, “and guys who are in the record book are the ones who decided how the game was played.”

On the cover of the first issue of Baseball Weekly, it reads: “Henderson contract flap: Will it tarnish Man of Steal’s run at record?”

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the highest annual salary he made as a player was $4.8 million with the A’s in 1994. It’s safe to say now, especially in light of what some players make today, he was underpaid.

“He’s the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, and I’m not sure there’s a close second,” Billy Beane, the longtime A’s executive, later told Wendel.

Henderson is also a rich part of our publication’s history.

“There’s the guy who put me on the cover of Baseball Weekly,” Henderson said when he would spot Wendel after that first issue debuted.

Borelli is the editor of USA TODAY Sports Weekly. To subscribe, go to sportsweekly.usatoday.com/delivery

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This story was updated with new information

Bill Belichick seems to have made his first major coaching staff hire at North Carolina.

And it’s a familiar face.

According to 247Sports’ Matt Zenitz, the Tar Heels’ coaches oldest son, Washington defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, is expected to make the cross country move to Chapel Hill after the Huskies’ bowl game against Louisville on Dec. 31. Steve Belichick will serve in the same role as he did at Washington, per Zenitz.

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The hiring of Steve Belichick at UNC has long been expected within those college football, including before the Tar Heels and Bill Belichick came to an agreement on a five-year, $50 million contract to be Mack Brown’s successor.

According to a report from Oliver Connelly at The Guardian on Dec. 6, part of Bill Belichick’s negotiations with North Carolina included Steve Belichick becoming the program’s next-in-line coach after Belichick retires or leaves the program.

Steve Belichick is currently in his first season coaching at the college ranks as Jedd Fisch’s defensive coordinator at Washington. Under Steve Belichick, the Huskies’ defense improved significantly compared to the year prior, when Kalen DeBoer served as Washington’s head coach. Washington ranked 27th in the nation in total defense this year compared to 99th in 2023 per ESPN.

Washington’s defense also ranked 46th in scoring defense (22.83 points per game) and tied for 52nd in red zone defense (81%) in the regular season.

He will now be tasked with replicating that success in Chapel Hill with the Tar Heels defense, which ranked 12th in the ACC this past year in scoring defense. The news of Steve Belichick coming to UNC also comes a day after Washington linebacker transfer Khmori House committed to Bill Belichick and North Carolina.

Prior to joining Fisch’s staff, he spent 11 seasons on Bill Belichick’s staff in New England in various defensive coaching roles from 2012-2023. For his last four seasons in Foxborough, Steve Belichick served as the Patriots defensive play caller, though he did not formally hold the title of the team’s defensive coordinator.

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Celebrate Penn State’s historic victory over Louisville in the NCAA women’s volleyball championship match with a mock front page from USA TODAY.

This full-page poster, printed on high-quality, acid-free art paper, features stunning photograph and a memorable headline from the match that sealed the Nittany Lions’ eighth NCAA championship and first since 2014. With a 25-23, 32-34, 25-20, 25-17 victory, Katie Schumacher-Cawley, diagnosed with breast cancer in September, became the first female coach to win it all in a tournament that started in 1981. Schumacher-Cawley, 44, also played on Penn State’s first championship team in 1999.

Show off your Penn State pride starting at $15.25, plus shipping and handling. This mock front page is available at the USA TODAY store, with upgrade options for framed copies and canvas, metal, acrylic and wood prints.

Buy USA TODAY’s commemorative Penn State poster

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The NBA continues to have its place on Christmas Day with its yearly slate of games.

The schedule will feature five games throughout the day and will feature the Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors among others.

It also will feature the next generation of stars such as Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards.

The New York Knicks have played in 56 Christmas Day games, the most of any team in the league, but they share the record for most wins on the holiday with the Lakers at 24.

LeBron James will have the opportunity to surpass former teammate Dwyane Wade for most wins on Christmas Day. Wade and James are tied at 10 victories.

James already holds the records for most games (18) and points scored (476) on Christmas Day.

Here’s everything you need to know.

Who is playing on Christmas Day?

  • San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks
  • Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
  • Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
  • Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
  • Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

How to watch Spurs play Knicks?

How to watch Timberwolves play Mavericks?

How to watch 76ers play Celtics?

How to watch the Lakers play Warriors?

How to watch the Nuggets play Suns?

The Nuggets will play the Suns in Phoenix at 10:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN and Fubo.

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With a four-set win Sunday afternoon, No. 1 Penn State defeated No. 1 Louisville inside the KFC Yum! Arena in Louisville, Kentucky to win the 2024 NCAA Div. I women’s volleyball national championship. The Nittany Lions defeated the Cardinals 25-23, 32-34, 25-20, 25-17. Camryn Hannah sealed the championship win for the Nittany Lions with a kill straight up the middle of the floor.

It’s a historic win by the Nittany Lions, as Penn State coach Katie Schumacher-Cawley became the first woman head coach to win a Div. I volleyball championship in NCAA history.

CELEBRATE THE NCAA TITLE: Buy a cover commemorating Penn State’s national title

‘There have been so many before me and that have paved the way for me,’ Schumacher-Cawley said in an interview on ESPN after the feat. ‘I’m so grateful and hopefully there will be more in the future that will want to coach and be a part of it.’

It’s the Nittany Lions eighth national championship – second most in NCAA volleyball history – and their first in over a decade.

Despite hitting .003 worse than Louisville in Set 1, Penn State took the opener by a score of 25-23 on a service ace from Nittany Lions graduate outside hitter Jess Mruzik.

The Nittany Lions looked to have been on their way to a 2-0 lead late in the second set but were unable to put it away, despite having 10 set-point opportunities. A big reason for that was Louisville outside hitter Payton Peterson, who recorded three aces in the set alone and started in place of injured senior Anna DeBeer. Louisville would take the set 34-32 on a combo block from Diaz Maldonado and Hannah Sherman.

That’d be the lone set Penn State would give up on the afternoon, taking Set 3 and Set 4 by scores of 25-20 and 25-17, respectively. Penn State hit .277 on the day, while Louisville hit .196.

Leading the way for Penn State was Mruzik, who finished with 29 kills, 14 digs and five blocks, while hitting .315 on the afternoon. Mruzik was named the NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player after Sunday’s game, as shown on ESPN’s broadcast.

Sunday’s national championship victory also puts an emotional ending to the season on many levels for Schumacher-Cawley, who is dealing with Stage 2 breast cancer. Schumacher-Cawley, who is in her third season leading the Nittany Lions, was diagnosed in September and began undergoing treatment in October, when she made her diagnosis public.

En route to the national championship, Penn State had to reverse sweep Big Ten foe Nebraska in the national semifinals on Thursday after losing the first and second sets. The Nittany Lions also picked up wins over Delaware State, North Carolina, Marquette and Creighton in the NCAA tournament.

Penn State ends the season on a 12-game winning streak and 35-2 overall.

(This story was updated with a new photo)

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Netflix on Friday announced it has secured exclusive rights in the U.S. to the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031.

The announcement comes just days before Netflix will stream its first ever National League Football Christmas Day games. Adding the Women’s World Cup to its portfolio shows the streaming giant is continuing to bulk up its sports rights portfolio. It also comes as the popularity of women’s sports has risen in the last year.

“I’ve seen the fandom for the FIFA Women’s World Cup grow tremendously — from the electric atmosphere in France in 2019, and most recently, the incredible energy across Australia and New Zealand in 2023,” Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria said in a press release. “Bringing this iconic tournament to Netflix is not just about streaming matches — it’s about celebrating the players, the culture, and the passion driving the global rise of women’s sports.”

The 2027 tournament is set to take place in 12 cities across Brazil. The host country for the 2031 tournament is yet to be announced.

Netflix said that coverage of the Women’s World Cup will include commentary and entertainment from studio shows and top-tier talent, as well as Netflix-original documentaries around major players and the sport’s rapidly growing fanbase in the lead up to the tournament.

The Women’s World Cup has continued to grow in popularity, and more people in the U.S. tuned in for the women’s final in 2019 than the men’s in 2018. U.S. viewership dropped substantially in 2023, however, after the two-time defending champions were knocked out in the Round of 16.

As the audience for the WNBA and women’s national soccer team has grown significantly in the U.S., soccer remains one of the most popular sports globally.

Netflix has 282.7 million global memberships, and the streamer has been pushing for growth internationally in part through its cheaper, ad-supported tier.

Sports media rights have also exploded in valuation for media companies as live sports beckon the biggest audiences.

Netflix has continued to grow into the sports category, streaming a Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight last month, which was watched by 108 million people, making it the most-streamed sporting event ever, according to Netflix.

On Christmas Day, the streamer is set to cover the NFL double-header featuring the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Houston Texans.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

After staying in the green following a sharp rebound the week before this one, the markets finally succumbed to selling pressure after failing to cross above crucial resistance levels. The Nifty stayed under strong selling pressure over the past five sessions and violated key support levels on the daily charts. The range remained wider on the anticipated lines; the Nifty traded in a wide 1243-points range over the past days. Volatility shot up as well; the India VIX surged 15.48% higher to 15.07 on a weekly basis. Following a weak performance, the headline index closed with a weekly loss of 1180.80 points (-4.77%).

Over the past few days, the Nifty has shown many technical events highlighting the importance of some key levels. The Index resisted the 100-DMA for several days and the 20-week MA for some time; this highlights the importance of these levels as key resistance points for the markets. In the process, the Nifty closed below the key 200-DMA, placed at 23834 while dragging the resistance points lower. The Nifty has also closed a notch above the crucial 50-week MA level placed at 23530. The markets had staged a mosterous rebound when this level was tested before. The Nifty’s behavior against the level of 50-week MA would determine the trajectory not just for the coming week but also for the immediate near term as well.

Next week is truncated, with the Christmas holiday on Wednesday. Expect a tepid start to the week on Monday. The levels of 23750 and 23830 would act as potential resistance points. The supports come in at the 23500 and 23285 levels on the lower side.

The weekly RSI is 44.41; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below its signal line. The widening Histogram hints at accelerated downside momentum. A large black candle occurring at the 20-week MA adds to the credibility of this level as a major resistance area for the markets.

The pattern analysis of the weekly charts shows that after completing the painful mean reversion process, the Nifty staged a strong technical rebound after it took support at the 50-week MA. The Index resisted at the 100-DMA and the 20-week MA, which are close to each other. The intense selling pressure over the coming week has seen the Nifty almost retesting the 50-week MA by closing just a notch above this point. The Nifty must keep its head above this crucial support level to keep its primary uptrend intact. If this level gets meaningfully violated, we might be in for a prolonged intermediate trend over the coming weeks.

Even if the trend remains weak and the downtrend continues, a modest technical rebound cannot be ruled out. However, it would still keep the markets under corrective retracement unless a few key levels are taken out on the upside. It is strongly recommended that leveraged exposures be kept at modest levels. All new exposures must be highly selective, and all gains, even modest ones, must be guarded very carefully. It is also recommended that one not rush in to shorten the markets so long as they are above 50-week MA, as there is a possibility of a modest technical rebound. A highly selective and careful approach is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show Nifty Bank, Financial Services, Services Sector, and the IT indices inside the leading quadrant. These sectors are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Pharma Index is inside the weakening quadrant. The Midcap 100 Index is also inside the weakening quadrant but is improving its relative momentum.

The Nifty Media, Energy, Commodities, Auto, and FMCG indices continue to lag inside the lagging quadrant. The Consumption Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant as well. These groups are likely to underperform the broader Nifty 500 Index relatively. The Nifty PSE Index is also inside the lagging quadrant but is improving its relative momentum against broader markets.

The Infrastructure Index has rolled inside the improving quadrant and is likely to begin its phase of relative outperformance. The Realty and the PSU Bank Indices are also inside the improving quadrant. The Metal Index, also inside the improving quadrant, is sharply giving up on its relative momentum.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Dave Stewart was too numb to move and too stunned to talk when he received the telephone call Friday that left him sobbing.

He was set to turn 66 years old on Christmas Day.

Stewart and Henderson were the best of friends. They grew up together in Oakland, played together for the Oakland Athletics, won a World Series together in Oakland, and together threw out the ceremonial last pitches before the Athletics’ final game in September at the Oakland Coliseum.

Now, three months after the Athletics franchise played its final game in Oakland, Henderson is gone.

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He was a first-ballot Hall of Famer, stealing the most bases and scoring the most runs in MLB history.

Henderson, a part-time instructor and ambassador with the A’s, who was heartbroken when the club announced it would depart Oakland, leaves an indelible mark that will be forever treasured.

If you were an A’s fan, you were a Rickey Henderson diehard.

If you were an player, you will forever cherish your favorite Rickey Henderson stories.

And if you were a lifelong friend like Dave Stewart, this was one of the worst days of your life.

Stewart, born and raised in Oakland, who won a World Series together with Henderson in 1989, said his all-time favorite moment at the Oakland Coliseum was watching Henderson break Lou Brock’s all-time career stolen base record two years later. Henderson wound up with 1,406 career stolen bases.

“When he became the king of stolen bases,’ Stewart said, “that was the greatest day for me.

“When you grow up with your homie and you watch him do great things, you feel like you’re a part of it. That’s my greatest moment.’

When Henderson broke the record, he yanked the second-base bag out of the dirt, held it high in the air, and shouted out: “I am the greatest!’

No one ever accused Henderson of humility, but he had had a flair that was unparalleled.

“Rickey just had his own style,’ said Dennis Eckersley, his former teammate and fellow Hall of Famer said.“I think he was clueless to the point where he didn’t realize he was showing people up.”

Former A’s infielder Mike Gallego once told the San Francisco Chronicle: “He had no intention of embarrassing anybody. He was playing baseball in the big leagues like he was playing in his backyard. We emulated Pete Rose and guys like that. Rickey emulated Rickey Henderson.”

Henderson, who led the league in stolen bases in 12 different seasons, averaging 74 steals a season in his 25-year-career, was a fourth-round pick of the Athletics in the 1976 draft out of Oakland Tech High School. He was drafted one year after Stewart was selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of St. Elizabeth High School.

They became teammates in 1989 with the A’s winning the World Series over the San Francisco Giants. Henderson was the MVP of the ALCS, hitting .400 and stealing eight bases and Stewart was the MVP of the World Series, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings.

It was the team’s first World Series win in 15 years, since Oakland was a title town in the 1970s with the A’s winning championships in 1972-74, the Golden State Warriors winning the NBA title in 1975, and the Oakland Raiders winning the 1980 Super Bowl.

This is why it was heartbreaking for Stewart and Henderson to see the team depart

“It’s disappointing to see the A’s leaving,” Henderson said. “But we’ve gone through so much with all the teams. When you have a city that had three big-name professional sports teams, and you can’t keep any of them, something’s wrong. It’s sad for the city.”

Stewart and Henderson, who moved to Oakland as a kid, first met when they were teenagers playing in Babe Ruth leagues. They later played against one another in high school, until becoming pro ballplayers, with Henderson becoming the most feared baserunner in baseball history.

“In my opinion, Rickey is one of the top three or four players to ever play the game,’ Stewart said. “I look at a guy who can carry a team not just for one or two days, but for a month or two at a time. He was just unbelievable.”

Now, he is gone, but will forever be remembered and revered by A’s fans.

“My career of being a baseball player in Oakland was fantastic,’’ Henderson said after being elected into the Hall of Fame. “I wouldn’t give it back for anything else. I had a wonderful time, the fans of Oakland were the best fans who were ever behind me and even when I was on another team, they always cheered.’

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