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Another Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention has come and gone.

The 2025 iteration of the biggest mining event globally was a success, with more than 25,000 attendees converging on the Metro Toronto Convention Center over the four day event.

Several key themes emerged at this year’s PDAC, with the most prevalent being the need for more exploration and funding, government support for the mining sector and the growing importance of critical minerals.

Setting the tone for the event, Mike Henry, CEO of BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP), underscored in an hour-long keynote address the vast amount of critical minerals that will be needed in the years ahead.

‘In copper alone, we anticipate 70 percent growth in demand by the middle of this century. Billions of people depend on our industry’s ability to deliver the critical minerals the world needs in a timely, reliable and cost-effective manner,” he said.

— (@)

The CEO went on to underscore the abundant resource potential offered by Canada, Australia and Chile, while also noting the massive investments needed to propel the energy transition and global decarbonization.

“Done well, the meeting of the world’s growing need for critical minerals can transform communities, economies and countries for the better, and one need look no further than Canada or Australia or Chile, three resource-rich nations that have harnessed their resource endowment for the effective benefit of the people,” Henry said.

He added that this continued effort requires capital, offering investors strong returns by supporting the right companies, commodities and standards. As Henry explained, for copper alone an investment of US$250 billion will be needed over the next five to 10 years to keep pace with “surging local demand.”

When extrapolated to include other in-demand metals, that number balloons to US$800 billion between now and 2040.

— (@)

The need for exploration investment was also reiterated by Kevin Murphy, director of metals and mining research with S&P Global Commodity Insights. During his presentation, he noted that mining exploration spending has dropped sharply from its highs in 2011 and 2012, with gold remaining the top target, followed by copper, uranium and lithium.

“I would consider exploration the canary in the coal mine for the mining industry in general; it’s the base of the pyramid, where mines are at the top and a huge amount of exploration, in theory, should be at the bottom,’ said Murphy. “If we look at where we currently are in exploration spending compared to historic amounts, we’re actually down a fair bit.”

Over the last decade, exploration expenditure has also shifted focus, from greenfield to mine site exploration.

“if you go back into the ’90s, even the early 2000s, generative, purely generative exploration, looking for new deposits. That was actually the preferred place to put your money,” explained Murphy.

“That has shifted greatly, so much so it’s now the least preferred. People are exploring their mines. They’re exploring assets with resources already proven, and they are moving further and further away from doing generative exploration.”

According to Murphy, greenfield exploration dropped significantly in 2024, raising concerns about long-term supply, particularly for copper, where major new discoveries have slowed. Gold has long focused on mine site exploration, while lithium and uranium, as younger commodities, are targeting assets with proven but undeveloped resources.

With financing challenges persisting in 2025 and market uncertainty growing, exploration budgets are expected to shrink further, except possibly for gold amid policy shifts.

Capital investment and supply growth

To ensure the long-term success of the energy transition and mineral pipeline, most presenters and panelists at PDAC agreed that capital investment is imperative.

During a lithium panel discussion, the vast amount of lithium needed for the electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage was underscored as a crucial indicator of the amount of CAPEX the sector needs in the years ahead.

— (@)

Lithium has been especially challenging, as the market swung into over supply in 2023 pushing prices down, also new technologies considered to still be in infancy are having issues ramping up output.

Near-term lithium supply faces challenges as key projects, especially in China, Chile, and Africa, struggle with delays due to financing, environmental, and permitting issues, Siddarth Subramani, director of lithium at Hatch told PDAC attendees.

He added that many projects are also ramping up slower than expected due to the industry’s lack of maturity.

In Argentina, lithium production is expected to grow from 75,000 tons to 300,000 metric tons by 2027, but technical and execution challenges could hinder this. A significant supply gap may emerge, pushing prices higher, but not enough to drive long-term production expansion.

— (@)

A similar tone was struck during the Benchmark Summit, an event that coincides with PDAC. The day-long symposium focused on the supply chain of raw materials needed for the energy transition.

Increasing copper production will be pivotal in achieving global carbon reduction goals, as well as ensuring the energy transition can continue its implementation rate. To meet this demand, the globally diversified miner is looking to Latin America, especially Argentina and Chile, which represents a significant growth opportunity for copper supply in the coming years if the supportive policy environment continues.

During his address to Benchmark Summit guests, Tony Power, CEO of Anglo American’s (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) Peruvian operations, highlighted the growth potential Anglo’s Los Bronces asset in Chile possesses, describing it as the ‘gift that keeps giving.”

As Anglo works to expand the asset through underground development, Power was also forthcoming with the challenges that are facing the copper sector.

“It’s not getting cheaper to make copper mines. It’s getting more and more expensive,” said Power. “So the only way to offset that is the price of copper to go up to be able to sustain that capital investment.”

The impact of AI

While financing and supplying the energy transition were obvious themes, the unexpected demand forecasted by AI data centers and generative technologies emerged as an equally important focus at the world’s largest mining-centric conference.

The world’s growing adoption of AI paired with mass electrification are projected to push electricity demand up by 80 percent by 2050, a factor many energy transition reports did not take into consideration.

Getting ahead of this demand several tech companies penned nuclear power agreements deals in 2024. While the headline making deals brought attention to the nuclear sector, little attention was paid to the required upstream growth needed to supply U3O8 to those reactors.

Per Jander, director of Nuclear Fuel at WMC underscored the magnitude of nuclear energy needed to meet the ever growing global electricity demand.

Unlike traditional data centers, AI facilities require immense power and advanced cooling systems, such as liquid cooling, due to their high-intensity computing needs. This sector is still in its early stages, yet demand is already surging, with AI operations consuming 50 terawatt-hours annually, explained Jander.

“Then 100 terawatt hours by 2027,” he said, adding that he got that figure from Deepseek. “So it comes from itself.”

Additionally, Jander also asked several AI assistants which energy source they preferred.

“Three out of four said I want fusion,” said Jander, noting he didn’t limit the AI to specific energy types. “But one … said that (it) wanted to use nuclear power.”

— (@)

Uranium isn’t the only sector expected to see a demand spike from the AI data center proliferation.

Noting that electrification is already pushing copper towards deficit, Micheal Meding, VP and GM at McEwen Copper (TSX:MUX,NYSE:MUX) believes AI electricity needs could tip that scale further.

“Data centers require huge amounts of copper and require a lot of energy, that energy needs to be generated and transported,” he said during a copper panel discussion at the Benchmark Summit. “So I think we haven’t really understood how much of this metal is going to be needed in the future.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

3 Mins Read

Tesla shares plunge 15%, steepest drop in five years

Tesla’s selloff on Wall Street intensified on Monday, with shares of the electric vehicle maker plunging 15%, their worst day on the market since September 2020.

On Friday, Tesla wrapped up a seventh straight week of losses, its longest losing streak since debuting on the Nasdaq in 2010. The stock has fallen every week since CEO Elon Musk went to Washington, D.C., to take on a major role in the second Trump White House.

Since peaking at $479.86 on Dec. 17, Tesla shares have lost over 50% of their value, wiping out over $800 billion in market cap. Monday marked the stock’s seventh worst day on record.

Tesla led a broader slump in U.S. equities, with the Nasdaq tumbling almost 4%, its steepest decline since 2022.

The downdraft in Tesla’s stock on Monday was tied to uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s plans on tariffs. Canada and Mexico are key markets for automotive suppliers, and increased tariffs, with the potential for a trade war, will likely impact production and lead to higher prices.

Tesla is also dealing with brand erosion due to Musk’s incendiary political rhetoric and his extensive work with the Trump administration, where he’s leading up the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, has become the public face of the administration’s effort to dramatically shrink the federal government’s workforce, spending and capacity.

Meanwhile, Musk has used his social network X to level accusations against judges whose decisions he didn’t like and promoted false Kremlin talking points about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Activists and former Musk fans have protested at Tesla facilities throughout the U.S., and Tesla vehicles and facilities have been the apparent targets of vandalism and arson attempts. Repeated arson attempts and instances of vandalism occurred at a Tesla store and service center in Loveland, Colorado, most recently on March 7, police told CNBC.

Ben Kallo, an analyst at Baird, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Monday that recent reports of vandalism could hurt demand.

“When people’s cars are in jeopardy of being keyed or set on fire out there, even people who support Musk or are indifferent Musk might think twice about buying a Tesla,” Kallo said.

Analysts at Bank of America’s wrote in a report on Monday that Tesla new vehicle sales plummeted by about 50% in Europe in January from a year earlier, partly owing to growing distaste for the brand. The firm also noted that some prospective customers are waiting for the new version of the Model Y.

Tesla’s Model Y, which is a small SUV, remained the best-selling battery electric vehicle globally in January. It was followed by China’s Geely Geome, which surpassed the Tesla Model 3 sedan for the month.

Global sales of electric vehicles, including fully electric and plug-in hybrid models, increased 21% in January from a year ago, even as Tesla’s sales declined. The growth was driven by demand in Europe, according to Bank of America.

— CNBC’s Jesse Pound contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

2 Mins Read

X sees major outages as Musk claims ‘massive cyberattack’ hit platform

Three separate outages appeared to hit Elon Musk’s X social media site Monday as he claimed it was suffering a ‘massive cyberattack.’

Downdetector.com first registered thousands of reports of trouble accessing or using the site around 5:30 a.m. ET. It took about an hour before those issues subsided.

Then, around 9:30 a.m., the issues appeared to flare up again, with as many as 40,000 outage reports detected. It again took about an hour for that incident to dissipate.

Finally, around 11:10 a.m., the issues cropped up again, according to Downdetector.

A representative for X couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

Musk said Monday afternoon on X that there had been a ‘massive cyberattack’ against the site.

‘We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved,” he said. He didn’t post any evidence of a cyberattack.

Experts said the outage was consistent with a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack, a rudimentary but sometimes effective hacker tactic to overwhelm a website with traffic, effectively knocking it offline.

Isik Mater, the director of research at NetBlocks, a company that tracks global internet connectivity, told NBC News that X had suffered intermittent outages since Monday morning. While establishing a DDoS attack with certainty can be difficult, Mater said, Musk’s claim was plausible.

“It’s difficult to be certain, but given the pattern of three observed outages, a denial [of] service attack targeting X’s infrastructure can’t be ruled out,” she said. “It’s certainly one of the longest X/Twitter outages in our records.”

Musk said in an interview Monday afternoon on Fox Business that the outage was due to “a massive cyberattack to try to bring down the X system with IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area,” a reference to internet protocol addresses. IP addresses, strings of numbers assigned to all internet-connected devices, include codes indicating their countries of origin.

Large DDoS attacks usually rely on large armies of hacked devices from around the world. The IP addresses of the devices used against X aren’t public, and they are unlikely to be a reliable indication of where the attacker was based.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

4 Mins Read

Southwest Airlines will charge to check bags for the first time, launch basic economy tickets

It’s happening: Southwest Airlines will start charging passengers to check bags for the first time.

It’s a stunning reversal that shows the low-cost pioneer is willing to part with a customer perk executives have said set it apart from rivals in more than half a century of flying in hopes of increasing revenue.

Southwest’s changes come after months of pressure from activist Elliott Investment Management. The firm took a stake in the airline last year and won five board seats as it pushed for quick changes at the company, which held on for decades — until now — to perks such as free checked bags, changeable tickets and open seating.

For tickets purchased on or after May 28, Southwest customers in all but the top tier-fare class will have to pay to check bags, though there will be exceptions. Elite frequent flyers who hold “A-List Preferred” status will still get two bags and A-List level members will get one free checked bag. Southwest credit card holders will also get one free checked bag.

“Two bags fly free” is a registered trademark on Southwest’s website. But its decision to about-face on what executives long cast as a sacrosanct passenger perk brings the largest U.S. domestic carrier in line with its rivals, which together generated $5.5 billion from bag fees last year, according to federal data.

Southwest executives have long said they didn’t plan to charge for bags, telling Wall Street analysts that it was a major reason why customers chose the airline.

“After fare and schedule, bags fly free is cited as the No. 1 issue in terms of why customers choose Southwest,” CEO Bob Jordan said on an earnings call last July.

But Southwest has changed its tune.

“What’s changed is that we’ve come to realize that we need more revenue to cover our costs,” COO Andrew Watterson said in an interview with CNBC about the baggage fee changes. “We think that these changes that we’re announcing today will lead to less of that share shift than would have been the case otherwise.”

In September, Southwest’s then-chief transformation officer, Ryan Green, told analysts that its analysis showed Southwest would lose more money from passengers defecting to rivals if it started charging for bags than it would make from the fees.

“The fact that free bags is a key driver of choice creates the risk that customers may choose the competition if we change the policy,” he said.

Southwest said last month that it had parted ways with Green.

The airline also said Tuesday that it will launch a new, basic economy fare, something rivals have offered for years.

Southwest, in addition, will change the way customers earn Rapid Rewards: Customers will earn more of the frequent flyer miles depending on how much they pay. Redemption rates will vary depending on flight demand, a dynamic pricing model competitors use.

And flight credits for tickets for tickets purchased on or after May 28 will expire one year, or earlier, depending on the type of fare purchased.

It’s the latest in a string of massive strategy changes at Southwest as its performance has fallen behind rivals.

Last July, Southwest shocked passengers when it announced it would ditch its open seating model for assigned seats and add “premium” extra legroom options, ending decades of an single-class cabin.

The airline is also looking to slash its costs. Higher expenses coming out of the pandemic have taken a bite out of airline margins.

Last month, Southwest announced its first mass layoff, cutting about 1,750 jobs roughly 15% of its corporate staff, many of them at its headquarters, a decision CEO Jordan called “unprecedented” in the carrier’s more than 53 years of flying.

“We are at a pivotal moment as we transform Southwest Airlines into a leaner, faster, and more agile organization,” he said last month.

Earlier this year, Southwest announced the retirement of its longtime finance chief, Tammy Romo, who was replaced by Breeze executive Tom Doxey, and its chief administrative officer, Linda Rutherford. Both executives worked at Southwest for more than 30 years.

Southwest has also cut unprofitable routes, summer internships and employee teambuilding events its held for decades.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

5 Mins Read

Dick’s Sporting Goods is latest retailer to forecast rocky 2025 as recession fears swirl

Dick’s Sporting Goods on Tuesday said it’s expecting 2025 profits to be far lower than Wall Street anticipated, making it the latest retailer to forecast a rocky year ahead as consumers contend with tariffs, inflation and fears around a potential recession.

In an interview with CNBC, Executive Chairman Ed Stack said the company’s exposure to China, Mexico and Canada for sourcing is very small, but it recognizes that falling consumer confidence could impact spending.

“I do think it’s just a bit of an uncertain world out there right now,” said Stack. “What’s going to happen from a tariff standpoint? You know, if tariffs are put in place and prices rise the way that they might, what’s going to happen with the consumer?”

On a call with analysts, CEO Lauren Hobart insisted the company is not seeing a weak consumer, and said its guidance is based on the overall uncertain environment.

“We definitely are feeling great about our consumer,” said Hobart. “We are just reflecting an appropriate level of caution given so much uncertainty out in the marketplace.”

Shares of the company opened about 2% lower.

Despite the weak guidance, the sporting goods retailer posted its best holiday quarter on record. Its comparable sales rose 6.4%, far ahead of the 2.9% growth that analysts expected, according to StreetAccount.

Here’s how Dick’s did in its fiscal fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Earnings per share: $3.62 vs. $3.53 expected

Revenue: $3.89 billion vs. $3.78 billion expected

The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 1 was $300 million, or $3.62 per share, compared with $296 million, or $3.57 per share, a year earlier.

Sales rose to $3.89 billion, up about 0.5% from $3.88 billion a year earlier. Like other retailers, Dick’s benefited from an extra week in the year-ago period, which has skewed comparisons. But unlike many of its peers, Dick’s still managed to grow both sales and profits during the quarter, even with one less selling week.

In the year ahead, Dick’s is expecting earnings per share to be between $13.80 and $14.40, well short of Wall Street estimates of $14.86, according to LSEG. It anticipates net sales will be between $13.6 billion and $13.9 billion, which at the high end is in line with estimates of $13.9 billion, according to LSEG. Dick’s expecting comparable sales to grow between 1% and 3%, compared with estimates of up 2.5%, according to StreetAccount.

The gloomy earnings outlook comes after a wide array of other retailers gave weak forecasts for the current quarter or the year ahead amid concerns about sliding consumer confidence and the impact tariffs and inflation could have on spending. Kohl’s also offered a weak outlook for the year ahead on Tuesday, leading its shares to plummet 15%.

Some retailers blamed an unseasonably cool February for a weak start to the current quarter, but most recognized they’re also operating in a tough macroeconomic backdrop, and it’s harder than ever to forecast how consumers are holding up. In February, consumer confidence slid to its lowest levels since 2021, the jobs report came in weaker than expected and unemployment ticked up. Over the last few years, a strong job market has led many economists to brush away concerns about rising credit card delinquencies and debt, but those cracks could grow deeper if unemployment continues to rise.

On Monday, some of those concerns triggered a stock market sell-off, extending losses after the S&P 500 posted three consecutive negative weeks. The Nasdaq Composite saw its worst day since September 2022, while the Dow lost nearly 900 points and closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Nov. 1, 2023.

Beyond the uncertain macroeconomic environment, Dick’s plans to invest more heavily in its “House of Sport” concept and e-commerce in the year ahead, which it also expects will weigh on profits. The massive, 100,000-square-foot stores are a growth area for the company and include features like rock climbing walls and running tracks.

In the year ahead, Dick’s plans to spend $1 billion on a net basis building 16 additional House of Sport locations and 18 Field House locations, which take some of the experimental elements of the House of Sport but fit it into the size of a traditional Dick’s store.

The strategy comes at a strong point for sports in the country, which is expected to be a tail wind for the business. The 2026 World Cup will be held in North America, women’s sports are more popular than ever, and consumers are increasingly focused on health and wellness.

“We’re going to have a moment here in the next three or four years, from a sports standpoint, that I think is going to put sport on steroids,” said Stack. “We’re going into a sports moment right now, and we are investing very heavily into that sports moment over the next several years because this is going to last through [2030] and maybe beyond.”

— Additional reporting by CNBC’s Courtney Reagan.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

4 Mins Read

The Best Five Sectors, #10

Sector Shake-Up: Defensive Moves and Tech’s Tumble

Last week’s market volatility stirred up the sector rankings, with 6 out of 11 sectors changing positions. While the top three remain steady, we see a clear rotation from cyclical to more defensive sectors. Let’s dive into the details and see what the charts tell us.

The weekly sector ranking has undergone some significant changes. Communication Services (XLC) is holding firm. Financials (XLF) is maintaining position. Consumer discretionary remains steady, but is showing weakness. Consumer Staples (XLP) is the new entrant to the top 5, while Utilities (XLU) Holds its ground at #5.

The big story here is the rise of defensive sectors. Health Care (XLV) made a notable jump from 10th to 6th place, while Technology (XLK) took a nosedive from 4th to 10th. This shift is characteristic of the broader shift from cyclical to defensive plays.

The New Sector Lineup

(1) Communication Services – (XLC)
(2) Financials – (XLF)
(3) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
(6) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
(5) Utilities – (XLU)
(10) Healthcare – (XLV)*
(9) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
(7) Industrials – (XLI)*
(8) Energy – (XLE)*
(4) Technology – (XLK)*
(11) Materials – (XLB)

Weekly RRG: A Tale of Two Sides

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG), printed above, paints an interesting picture. We see only three sectors on the right-hand side of the graph, with the rest clustered on the left. But their movements are telling:

XLC is in the leading quadrant, moving northeast — a positive sign.
XLF has turned back up into the leading quadrant, reinforcing its #2 spot.
XLY is in the weakening quadrant with a long tail, heading towards lagging — a potential red flag.

On the left side:

XLK’s rotation is clearly weak, pushing further into the lagging quadrant.
Meanwhile, XLP and XLU show strength, moving with positive RRG headings in the improving quadrant.

Daily RRG: Confirming the Weekly Story

When we look at the daily RRG, we get some additional context:

XLC has curled up in the weakening quadrant, supporting its positive weekly rotation.
XLF is confirming its positive move in the leading quadrant.
XLY is the outlier — its short tail in the lagging quadrant doesn’t bode well for maintaining its #3 position.
XLP shows the strongest RS ratio reading on the daily chart, complementing its positive weekly movement.
XLU has lost some relative momentum over the last day, but nothing too concerning at this point.

The Top Five Charts

Communication Services – XLC

XLC is playing around with its old resistance line, now expected to act as support. Monday’s price action shows a slight revival, but it’s too early to call. The relative strength remains robust, with a clear series of higher highs and higher lows on the raw RS line.

Financials – XLF

XLF has broken its rising support line and completed a toppish formation. We’re now eyeing the next support level, around $47.25. Despite this, XLF’s relative performance remains strong, with both RRG lines moving higher.

Consumer Discretionary – XLY

After completing a top formation, XLY is now testing support around 200. It appears to be moving back into its old rising channel — and if my rule holds true, we might see it test the lower boundary. This suggests significant downside risk for the sector.

Consumer Staples – XLP

XLP, the newcomer to the top 5, is pushing against overhead resistance in the $83.50-84 area. A break here could give the sector a significant boost. The improvement in relative strength is already evident, pulling both RRG lines higher.

Utilities – XLU

XLU remains in a sideways pattern, potentially settling into a narrower range between $75.50 and $80.50.

Its relative strength is also range-bound but still pulling both RRG lines up — enough to keep it in the top 5.

Portfolio Performance Update

The technology position was exited and swapped for the consumer staples position against Monday’s opening prices.

As of about 45 minutes after opening, the portfolio performance stands at -3.19% since inception, compared to the SPY benchmark at -3.39%. We’re about 20 basis points ahead — not making a big dent, but keeping pace with the S&P 500 for now.

Going forward, I’ll be including both the performance table and the list of open positions in these articles for better tracking.

Summary

The market’s rotation towards defensive sectors is becoming increasingly evident. Consumer discretionary looks vulnerable, while consumer staples and utilities show strength.

#StayAlert, –Julius

3 Mins Read

DP Trading Room: Market Sell-Off

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

The market sell-off continued in earnest after a brief respite on Friday. Uncertainty of geopolitical tensions and tariff talk has spooked the market and given the weakness of mega-cap stocks, we are likely to see more downside before a snapback rally.

Carl was off today so Erin had the controls! She started off the trading room with a review of the DP Signal Tables to get a sense of market strength and weakness. She then analyzed indicator charts on the SPY and finished with a look at key areas of the market: Bitcoin, Dollar, Gold, Gold Miners, Yields, Bonds and Crude Oil.

After the market review Erin took a look at the Magnificent Seven daily and weekly charts. Not one of them were showing strength. Most had lost key support levels and were heading lower.

Erin then walked us through sector rotation. It is clear that the defensive sectors of the market are leading the way with the exception of Utilities which have been in a declining trend. Erin dove into the Energy sector, looking under the hood to determine if the current rally will continue.

She finished the trading room with a review of viewer symbol requests that included: PAYC, VLO and LLY among others.

Don’t forget that you can join us live in the trading room by registering once at this link: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D6iAp-C1S6SebVpQIYcC6g#/registration

We love doing the trading room, but we do have to make a living! Come try out any of our subscriptions for two weeks free with our trial coupon code: DPTRIAL2. You’ll find our subscriptions here: https://www.decisionpoint.com/products.html

01:21 DP Signal Tables

04:44 Market Analysis

18:05 Questions

21:47 Magnificent Seven

32:39 Sector Rotation

38:08 Symbol Requests

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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6 Mins Read

Transform Your Investing Strategy: Uncover the 3 Game-Changing Rules

“The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.”

How often have you heard this adage? More importantly, how often do you follow it?

Chasing stocks, whether it’s one that was texted to you as the next high-flying AI stock, a popular meme stock, or the next hot IPO, can be tempting. If you’re lucky, the price moves in your favor, you get elated, and you throw one heck of a party. Alas, the story doesn’t always end this way. The stock market can catch you off guard. It gives you several opportunities, but also unexpectedly robs them from you. This is especially true during an overextended market.

Any negative news headlines make investors nervous, leading them to make irrational decisions. To avoid falling into the trap of buying and selling stocks at the wrong time, take the smart approach and set some basic rules to follow.

Rule 1: Determine the Market’s Long-term Trend

You want to trade in the direction of the long-term trend—buy when the trend is up and sell when it is down. Buying stocks when the overall trend is declining can be like catching a falling knife, while selling stocks when the trend is rising could mean missing sizable moves. To determine the overall direction of the stock market’s long-term trend, look at a chart of a benchmark index, such as the S&P 500 ($SPX), that covers at least one year.

We’ll examine the weekly chart of the S&P 500 (see below). Overall, the index has trended higher for the last five years, but there have been pullbacks, some longer and more severe than others (pink shaded areas). The index is going through a pullback now, although we won’t know the magnitude of it until it’s over.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. Overall, the trend in the benchmark has been bullish, although there have been periods of declines and pullbacks. The index is going through a decline.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

From January 2022 to October 2022, the S&P 500 declined over 20%. Many Wall Street analysts expected the decline to continue, but the S&P 500 recovered, ending 2023 with a 26.3% gain and 2024 with a 23.31% gain. There were a few minor pullbacks along the way, some more pronounced than others (end of 2023 and July to August 2024).

Nobody knows what the market will do, but, when you see a pullback forming—and it looks like one is forming—don’t plan on opening long positions. If you’re not convinced the market is pulling back, view a daily chart of the S&P 500 to see if it aligns with the weekly chart’s trend. If both indicate a downtrend or the two don’t align, you need to dig deeper.

Rule 2: Is Market Breadth Expanding or Contracting?

Market breadth is an effective method to uncover the percentage of stocks participating in the uptrend. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is one of several breadth indicators available in StockCharts and is available for indexes, sectors, and industry groups.

The chart below displays the BPI for the S&P 500 in the upper panel ($BPSPX) against the daily chart of the S&P 500 in the lower panel. When the BPI is above 50%, it indicates the bulls have an edge. When it’s below 50%, the bears have an edge.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500 BULLISH PERCENT INDEX VS. S&P 500. Note the uptrends in the S&P 500 coincide with a BPI greater than 50. The downtrend in the S&P 500 coincides with an S&P 500 BPI of less than 50.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In the last year, besides the pullback periods in the S&P 500, the bulls have had the upper hand. If you wanted to invest in an S&P 500 stock when the bulls were in control, your first task is to find one that aligns with the bullish move.

Rule 3: Buy on Up Days, Sell on Down Days

Let’s focus on the period between August 9, 2024, and December 18, 2024, to coincide with the period when the BPI was greater than 50 and examine a hollow candlestick chart of Apple, Inc. (AAPL), one of the top cap-weighted stocks in the S&P 500.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF APPLE STOCK. From August 9 to December 18, 2024, which coincides with the S&P 500 BPI > 50, the stock price trended higher, displaying a series of hollow green candles at the front and tail end of the period.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Hollow candlestick charts are visually interesting and have the advantage of identifying a trend quickly. The upward movement began a few days before August 9, when there was a significant gap down in AAPL’s price. Even though it was a down day, the bar was hollow, which means the close was higher than the open.

Looking at all three charts, August 9 presented an opportune buy signal. It aligned with the bullish BPI and the long-term trend in the weekly and daily charts.

If you had hypothetically opened a long position, you could have exited your position on December 18, when the BPI turned bearish and made a decent return. You could have held on for a few more days, but the stock sold off quickly, so your exit would depend on how well your sell order got filled.

Regardless, you should have exited the position during the series of down days that started on December 27. If you hadn’t closed your position then and were still holding on to it, you would have been caught in the downward spiral that started when the S&P 500 BPI fell below 50 on February 27.

StockCharts Tip

Hollow candlestick charts differ from the traditional filled candlestick charts. To apply hollow candle charts, click the Hollow Candles button under Chart Attributes.

The Bottom Line

Given the erratic nature of the stock market, especially an over-extended one, a smart approach to investing requires following a set of rules. It doesn’t have to be complicated.

Identifying the long-term trend, checking the market’s breadth, and ensuring the trend of a stock you want to buy aligns with the overall market is a simple approach, but applying it successfully in real time takes practice. Practice applying the rules using a simulated account. There’s no better teacher than yourself.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

6 Mins Read

College sports doesn’t have revenue problem. It has spending issue.

The next time you hear someone, anyone, from college sports complain about a lack of revenue, laugh in their face.

They’ll have you believe those mean, greedy players have sidetracked an amateur sports world of faithful and loyal do-gooders, and ransacked it for every dollar it’s worth.

If I had $1,000 for every time a college football coach declared the current world of college sports “unsustainable,” I could pay Luka Doncic’s contract extension.

And speaking of extension, that’s where this story turns to the absurd. Late last week, Oregon decided to extend coach Dan Lanning, who was last seen on the big stage trailing 34-0 in the College Football Playoff Rose Bowl quarterfinal — as the nation’s No.1 ranked team.

That’s nearly $11 million per over six years for Lanning – and $60.4 million guaranteed – who has lost too many games of significance as a head coach.

I don’t blame Lanning for his agent getting everything he can out of Oregon. I blame Oregon, and the 69 other Power Four schools that include Oregon State and Washington State, who have claimed poverty since the NCAA in 2021 decided to open up a can of NIL and free player movement — at the same damn time.

(To this day, the dumbest move in a long, long line of dumb NCAA moves).

I blame the entire 70 schools that – are you ready for this? – will make an estimated $7.4 billion in fiscal year 2025-26, and as much as $10.5 billion by 2034-35, according to a declaration filed last week in support of the multi-billion dollar House settlement.

And still can’t figure out how to pay players without claiming the world is coming to an end.

SPRING POWER RANKINGS: Big Ten | SEC | ACC | Big 12

LOOKING AHEAD: Our way-too-early college football Top 25 for 2025

Without adding more games to a postseason that already is competing with the NFL for television eyes. Without eating one of its own (RIP, Pac-12), and leaving two others (ACC, Big 12) scrambling for crumbs.

The NCAA and attorneys representing players are awaiting final approval of the House case settlement – which would officially approve, in essence, pay for play through NIL – from U.S. District Court judge Claudia Wilken. It should come as no surprise that Wilkin will hold a hearing on April 7, which just so happens to coincide with the Final Four national championship game.

The very tournament the NCAA earns an average of $1.1 billion annually over the course of an eight-year contract with media rights partners CBS and Turner.

You can’t make this up, people.

The declaration filed last week by economics expert Dan Rascher – who has served as the NCAA’s numbers cruncher in just about every antitrust lawsuit against the association – admitted the exorbitant cash flow through the 70 Power conference schools. But here’s where it gets a little tricky, so stay with me.

The House settlement player pool (see: salary cap) is based on a percentage of eight revenue streams, including but not limited to media rights, ticket sales and bowl/playoff games. But the settlement numbers aren’t based off the entire athletic department revenue.

For example, Texas’ total operating athletic revenue for the 2024 fiscal year was $331.9 million, but its figure for the eight categories used for the pool calculation was $172.1 million. Cincinnati’s pool calculation was $38.8 million.

Under the terms of the agreement, the total of the eight revenue streams from the 70 power conference schools is pooled together, and the players would receive a percentage of that revenue that is expected to be between $20-23 million per school for the first year after the settlement. That number is guaranteed to increase by at least 4% in each of the two years.

The goal of equalizing the number for all schools is to prevent programs like Texas from spend more money on players than smaller programs like Cincinnati. Remember, the $20-23 million is what schools are allowed to spend on players in all the men’s and women’s programs for the use of their NIL — if they choose to.

This takes us all the way back to Lanning and every other coach and assistant coach who signed mega deals this offseason. Steve Sarkisian got a pay raise to $10.8 million annually, and Bill Belichick got $10 million annually to become North Carolina football coach.

Jim Knowles got $3.1 million annually to leave Ohio State and become Penn State’s defensive coordinator, a salary greater than 74 FBS head coaches had last season.

Yet here we go again, coaches and athletic directors and conference commissioners complaining about an “unsustainable” environment in college athletics.

Imagine an association of 70 schools, who have willingly pulled away from the rest of college sports – with a combined budget of $7.4 billion for the academic year – making player salaries the financial boogeyman.

Maybe, just maybe, stop increasing debt service with “facility improvements.” Or if you simply must have new stadiums and arenas and ballparks, and new stand-alone football and basketball facilities because recruits just need that new bling, stop paying coaches to not coach.

Stop paying millions to high school players who have never taken a snap of college football. Stop paying general managers for a job that can (and should) be done by the head coach and athletic director.

Stop paying for a staff of 40, or millions upon millions in recruiting budgets. Stop paying for coaches to take a helicopter to a high school game, so he looks different from every other coach there — to impress a 17-year-old kid.

And college sports has no idea why it finds itself in this predicament.

Lanning is 3-4 vs. rivals Washington and Oregon State, 1-1 in conference championship games and 0-1 in CFP games. And just got $60 million — no matter what happens over the next six seasons.

There’s your unsustainable, everyone.

And it’s nothing to laugh about.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

7 Mins Read

Big Ten teams shine, Notre Dame tumbles ahead of March Madness

INDIANAPOLIS — Have fun with this, selection committee.

Chaos reigned in the major women’s conference tournaments, just as it did in the final weeks of the regular season. Three of the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA’s last projection lost, with Notre Dame not even getting to the ACC title game. Two of the No. 2 seeds also went down. Unranked teams wreaked havoc on the top 25.

It’s glorious! Just glorious. Except for those trying to determine the 68-team tournament field and their seeds, that is.

But this kind of mayhem is further sign of the growth of the women’s game. Gone are the days of one or two schools dominating. There’s at least six teams that can make a legitimate case for winning the national title, and just as many who have serious bracket-busting potential.

So, yeah, ought to be a fun week for the selection committee before the NCAA field is announced Sunday.

Here are the winners and losers from the major conference tournaments:

WINNERS

Big Ten

USC and UCLA have drawn much of the attention in the Big Ten, and rightfully so. UCLA spent much of the season as the country’s No. 1 team and won the conference tournament Sunday while USC won the regular-season title.

But don’t sleep on the rest of the conference. Particularly the teams in the second tier. The Big Ten could get a dozen teams in the NCAA tournament, and anyone drawing Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska or Indiana is not going to be happy.

“The fact that we have teams that are 10, 11, 12 seeds here who might be a better seed in the national tournament is wild,” USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb said after the Trojans held off Indiana 84-79 in the quarterfinals.

Michigan had USC on its heels for much of their semifinal game Saturday night. The Trojans ultimately prevailed, thanks to both Kiki Iriafen’s big third quarter and the Wolverines’ foul trouble, but Michigan showed it can play with anybody.

Iowa has won 10 of its last 13 games, and those three losses were by a total of 11 points and to ranked teams. Indiana gave USC a scare until JuJu Watkins did JuJu things. And Nebraska freshman Britt Prince showed she’s more than ready for the big time, matching her career-high with 24 against UCLA in the quarterfinals.

“The Big Ten has a lot of great teams, and I think just throughout the season we’ve gotten a lot better handling the really good teams. Especially the new additions,” Prince said after the Cornhuskers fell 85-74 in the quarterfinals.

“Being this close to UCLA, they’re one of the top teams in the country, and I think we showed how we can hang with them. I think that’s really important for us, and a big momentum booster heading into the rest of the season.”

Paige Bueckers

It takes a lot to set yourself apart at UConn, but Paige Bueckers has managed to do it.

Bueckers was named Most Outstanding Player of the Big East tournament Monday, making her the first player to win it three times. Bueckers had 24 points, eight rebounds, three assists, two blocks and two steals in UConn’s 70-50 win over Creighton.

‘You work entirely for this moment,’ Bueckers said.

Bueckers was the first to win national Player of the Year honors as a freshman, when she also led UConn to the Final Four. Injuries derailed her next two seasons, and she played just 17 games. But she has been outstanding the last two years, leading UConn back to the Final Four last year and putting them in position to make another deep run this year.

‘It was a dream since I was a kid, and it’s been everything I could dream of,’ Bueckers said of her UConn career. ‘I can’t be grateful enough.’

LSU

LSU caught a break when Aneesah Morrow’s injury wasn’t as bad as initially feared.

Morrow couldn’t put weight on her foot and had to be helped off the floor after getting hurt in the third quarter of LSU’s SEC tournament semifinal loss to Texas. But coach Kim Mulkey said afterward that Morrow had aggravated the foot sprain she’s been dealing with the last few weeks.

“She can go for the (NCAA) tournament. Everything is good,’ Mulkey said, adding that Morrow was lobbying the training staff to go back in the game against the Longhorns.

Morrow has often worn a walking boot since spraining her foot in the Feb. 16 game against Texas. But she’s continued to play, and the Tigers need her if they hope to make a run in the NCAA tournament. Morrow is LSU’s top rebounder, with 13.6 boards a game, and the Tigers’ second-leading scorer with 18.5 points a game.

Mulkey also said leading scorer Flau’jae Johnson, who missed the SEC tournament with a shin injury, will be ready for the NCAA tournament.

Arkansas State and George Mason

What turnarounds Arkansas State and George Mason have made, resulting in first-ever trips to the NCAA tournament for each school.

Arkansas State was picked to finish 13th in the 14-team Sun Belt Conference. But it won 21 games and on Monday upset James Madison in overtime to win the Sun Belt tournament title. James Madison came into the championship game with a 20-game winning streak, including a perfect 18-0 record in conference play.

George Mason was winless in the Atlantic 10 four years ago. On Sunday, the Patriots beat St. Joseph’s to win the conference tournament. It also was George Mason’s 28th win, extending the program’s single-season record.

“We asked these players, four years ago, to believe in something that was nowhere near present,” Patriots coach Vanessa Blair-Lewis said, according to The Washington Post.

North Carolina

The whole state is dancing! OK, maybe not the whole state. But a whole lot of it.

There’s still a chance another North Carolina school could to join the party, too. North Carolina A&T won the regular-season Coastal Athletic Association title and is the top seed for this week’s conference tournament.

LOSERS

Notre Dame

Was it really only three weeks ago that the Irish were atop the rankings and in line for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament? My, how times have changed.

Notre Dame skids into the NCAA tournament having lost three of its last five games, including a 61-56 loss to Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals. It was a season-low in points for the Fighting Irish.

“Defensively we’ve been lacking,” coach Niele Ivey said Saturday night. “Just having that intensity defensively is part of the reason for the last three losses, and that’s frustrating because that’s something we work on every day; it’s something we’ve been working towards the entire season.”

Saint Joseph’s

Despite 23 wins in the regular season, it was always going to be an uphill battle for Saint Joseph’s to make the NCAA tournament.

After finishing fourth in the Atlantic-10, with six losses, the Hawks needed to win the conference tournament. They came close, upsetting regular-season champ Richmond in the semifinals. But they lost to George Mason in Sunday’s final, and are projected among the first four teams left out.

Tennessee

Tennessee’s hopes of playing the early rounds at home ended in the SEC tournament.

The Lady Vols were a No. 3 seed in the NCAA’s last projection, which would have meant they’d host first- and second round games. (Unlike in the men’s tournament, which uses neutral sites for all games, the women play first- and second-round games at campus sites.)

But a loss to Georgia at home in the regular-season finale dropped Tennessee out of that group of top four seeds, and it needed to make a run in the SEC tournament to get back in there. That did not happen, with the Lady Vols losing to Vanderbilt in the second round.

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY