Aurum Resources (AUE:AU) has announced Boundiali Gold Project produces more good drilling results
Download the PDF here.
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Mario Innecco, who runs the maneco64 YouTube channel, shares his thoughts on the record runs in gold and silver, outlining what these high prices say about the world.
‘This is I think the end of this fiat currency regime,’ he said.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Wednesday (January 14) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.
Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.
Bitcoin and Ether price update
Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$97,611.39, up by 3.3 percent over 24 hours.
Bitcoin price performance, January 14, 2025.
Chart via TradingView.
Ether (ETH) was priced at US$3,380.29, up by 5.5 percent over the last 24 hours.
Altcoin price update
- XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.15, up by 0.6 percent over 24 hours.
- Solana (SOL) was trading at US$147.38, up by 2.7 percent over 24 hours.
Today’s crypto news to know
Senate Committee puts crypto bill on January clock
The US Senate Committee on Agriculture has scheduled January 27 for its markup of a sweeping crypto market structure bill aimed at clarifying regulatory oversight of digital assets.
The bill text is due to be released on January 21, giving lawmakers less than a week to review and propose amendments before the committee vote. Committee Chair John Boozman said the compressed schedule is designed to balance transparency with momentum as Congress looks to reduce regulatory uncertainty.
The agriculture committee plays a central role because it oversees the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which would gain expanded authority under the proposal.
If approved, the bill would still need to clear the Senate Banking Committee, pass the full Senate and House and ultimately be signed into law. While momentum has improved compared to last year, unresolved disputes remain around stablecoin yield and decentralized finance provisions.
Polygon to acquire Coinme, Sequence for ‘one-stop shop’ payments
Polygon Labs has entered into definitive agreements to acquire Coinme and Sequence, bringing together licensed fiat on- and off-ramps, enterprise wallets and onchain orchestration in one integrated solution.
Coinme provides licensed cash-to-digital at retail locations, while Sequence has the simplified ‘smart wallet’ technology needed to move that money easily. By acquiring these two companies, Polygon believes it is building a “one-stop shop” for moving money, allowing users to turn physical cash into digital money, and vice versa, at over 50,000 retail locations in the US; they can also create a digital wallet using an email or social media account.
In addition to that, Polygon said the acquisition will allow crypto users to send money across the world in seconds, without the need for complicated background steps.
Figure launches OPEN, a blockchain-based stock exchange network
Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ:FIGR) has launched a new system called the On-Chain Public Equity Network (OPEN), providing a new way for companies to list and trade shares using blockchain technology.
According to the announcement, OPEN is a new system where official stock ownership is recorded directly on a public blockchain, meaning the blockchain record is the stock, unlike a digital copy. It allows continuous, peer-to-peer trading via a limit order book, eliminating reliance on traditional banks and clearinghouses that close.
Investors can self-custody their stocks in a digital wallet, which aims to reduce fees and costs.
The network also allows shareholders to use their stocks as collateral for borrowing or lending, a role typically held by prime brokers. Figure said it is planning for these blockchain stocks to be ‘exchangeable’ with Nasdaq-traded stocks, ensuring price parity and liquidity across both markets.
Figure is the first company to use OPEN, and is offering some of its own shares to demonstrate the technology’s viability for large-scale public investing.
CleanSpark expands into AI data centers with Texas acquisition
CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK), a company primarily known for Bitcoin mining, announced an expansion to build data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) with the purchase of 447 acres of land in Brazoria County, Texas.
This is its second major land purchase in the area following a similar deal nearby in Austin County.
The company has secured a long-term deal to get up to 600 megawatts of electricity for this new site, enough power to run hundreds of thousands of homes.
While the company is known for mining Bitcoin, it is now using its expertise in building large “computer warehouses” to support the AI boom. These new sites are being designed as AI factories, places filled with powerful computers that process the complex data needed for things like ChatGPT and other advanced tech.
The deal is expected to close in early 2026. Once finished, CleanSpark will have nearly 1 gigawatt of potential capacity in the Houston area, making it a major player in the infrastructure that runs the modern internet.
Strategy’s US$1.3 billion Bitcoin haul lifts price
Bitcoin climbed back above US$95,000 after Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) disclosed a US$1.3 billion Bitcoin purchase, its largest single acquisition since July.
The purchase pushed Strategy’s shares up about 7 percent, reinforcing its reputation as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin. The company now holds roughly US$66 billion worth of Bitcoin at an average purchase price near US$75,000.
Strategy funded the purchase by issuing more than US$1 billion in new shares rather than tapping existing cash.
The rally was reinforced by a surge in institutional demand, with US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording their strongest single-day inflows since October.
European crypto exchange Bitpanda targets 2026 Frankfurt IPO
European crypto exchange Bitpanda is reportedly preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) in the first half of 2026, with a potential valuation of up to 5 billion euros.
Bloomberg reported that the Vienna-based firm is said to be eyeing a Frankfurt listing, positioning itself in one of Europe’s deepest capital markets. Founded in 2014, Bitpanda has grown into a major retail platform with more than 7 million users and a dominant share of Austria’s domestic crypto trading activity.
The company has reportedly engaged major investment banks to advise on the deal, though it has yet to formally confirm its IPO plans. A Frankfurt listing would align Bitpanda with a broader trend of European firms prioritizing liquidity and investor depth over traditional UK venues
Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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PHOENIX — The Arizona Diamondbacks tried to trade All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte, flirted with free agent third baseman Alex Bregman, and wound up Tuesday acquiring Nolan Arenado.
This outcome wasn’t on the D-backs’ winter bingo card, but for a team trying to stay competitive in the National League West while still reducing payroll, they’ll take it.
Certainly, acquiring a 10-time Gold Glove winner and eight-time All-Star for the price of a fringe prospect, with the Cardinals paying most of Arenado’s salary, turned out to be a perfect fit. Arenado still has two years and $42 million left on his contract, but the Cardinals are paying $31 million of his deal, wity the D-backs responsible for just $5 million this year and $6 million in 2027.
They didn’t even have to give up a top-30 prospect with right-hander Jack Martinez, an eighth-round draft pick from Arizona State a year ago, going to the Cardinals. Martinez has yet to make his professional debut.
“We think he really solidifies our defense in the infield,’’ said Mike Hazen, D-backs president of baseball operations. “That’s been a priority for us to improve our defense, which I believe is going to have a direct impact on our pitching in a significant way.’
Really, the trade was made to accommodate Arenado, 34. He didn’t want to remain in St. Louis since they are in a full-scale rebuild, and the Cardinals wanted to give playing time to their young players.
Certainly, the Cardinals would have received a much greater return a year ago but Arenado exercised his no-trade rights to veto a trade to the Houston Astros. He also told the Cardinals that he didn’t want to join the Los Angeles Angels after they expressed interest. His hope was to be traded last spring to the Boston Red Sox and join his former Colorado Rockies teammate Trevor Story, but the Red Sox instead signed Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract.
The Red Sox lost Bregman on Saturday when he signed a five-year, $175 million contract with the Chicago Cubs, but the Red Sox had no interest in Arenado this time around. He fell into the D-backs’ laps when the Cardinals agreed to pay three-quarters of his contract.
The Diamondbacks are hoping that Arenado not only bounces back after his struggles last season, but provides veteran leadership to their young clubhouse. Bregman’s leadership skills also attracted the D-backs, who were interested in potentially signing Bregman, but only if they were able to trade Marte.
“We’ve always liked the way he’s played the game,’’ Hazen said. “The impact he can have when he’s not playing, inside the walls, is important to us. He’s a good fit from that standpoint too.
“I know how much winning means to him, and it’s important to us.’
Arenado, who has a home in Orange County, Calif., told USA TODAY Sports in a text message Tuesday that he is thrilled to be joining the D-backs and will look for a home in the Phoenix area. He used to have a home in Scottsdale when he played for the Colorado Rockies, and was a frequent visitor at former D-backs World Series hero Luis Gonzalez’s home to use his batting cages.
Arenado, 34, has struggled the past two years, but believes he can be a productive third baseman, and optimistic that he will bounce back from last year’s dismal season. He played in only 23 games the second half of last season with a right shoulder strain, hitting just .237 with 12 homers – his lowest total since 2013. Arenado replaces veteran Eugenio Suarez, who was traded to the Seattle Mariners at last year’s trade deadline.
“We definitely see the ability to bounce back here,’ Hazen said. “We’re excited about that. We know how much work he’s going to put into that. I know he’s going to put in every amount of work and energy into doing that, and we probably have a little better ballpark to hit in.
“So, we look for him to be a solid offensive contributor for us in our lineup. With the firepower we have at the top of our lineup, we’re not looking for him to carry the offense. We don’t need him to carry the offense. We need him to solidify and stabilize our defense, that’s a huge component to this.’
The Diamondbacks, who won the National League pennant in 2023 but missed the playoffs the last two seasons, are hoping to stay in contention until their team gets healthy. Ace Corbin Burnes, who signed a $210 million contract last winter, is expected to return in the second half after recovering from Tommy John surgery. They also expect to have left fielder Lourdes Gurriel and co-closers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez back before the end of the season.
They brought back free-agent Merrill Kelly on a two-year contract after trading him to Texas at last year’s deadline, and also signed veteran starter Mike Soroka. They still are searching for bullpen help and signed veteran reliever Jonathan Loaisiga to a minor-league contract Tuesday with an invitation to their spring training camp.
“I don’t think we’re anywhere close to one player away from being the best team we can possibly be,’ Hazen said. “We need to continue to shore up multiple areas of our team, and that includes the bullpen and the position player group. We will see what happens between now and opening day.’’
Nolan Arenado trade details
Cardinals get:
- Minor-leaguer Jack Martinez
Diamondbacks get:
- 3B Nolan Arenado
- $31 million
Nolan Arenado contract
- 2026: $27 million ($5 million paid by Colorado Rockies)
- 2027: $15 million
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For the second time in as many weeks, the Miami Marlins traded from their starting pitching surplus.
After trading Edward Cabrera to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday, Jan. 7, the Marlins on Jan. 13 agreed to a trade to send left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers to the New York Yankees for a package featuring four hitting prospects.
The prospect package headed back to Miami is headlined by outfielder Dillon Lewis, who MLB.com ranks as the Yankees’ No. 16 prospect in their system. Lewis, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenethal, was a name that Miami was seeking from the Yankees in talks for Cabrera.
Weathers, 26, is the son of longtime MLB pitcher David Weathers, who was actually traded from the then-Florida Marlins to New York at the 1996 deadline. Ryan Weathers went 2-2 in eight starts in 2025 with a 3.99 ERA in 38⅓ innings.
Ryan Weathers trade grades
New York Yankees
Weathers joins a Yankees rotation that will be down Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón to start the season due to injuries. If Weathers remains healthy, he could slide into the rotation with Max Fried, Cam Schlittler and Will Warren, until Cole and Rodón return.
Health, however, has been a major detriment for Weathers in his young career. Over the last two seasons, he has been limited to just 24 starts and 125 innings.
When healthy, Weathers features a fastball that averaged 96.8 mph in 2025, per FanGraphs, and can also miss bats with his changeup and sweeper.
Miami and Weathers settled on a $1.35 million salary last week, avoiding arbitration. Weathers is eligible for arbitration twice more and will not be a free agent until the 2028-29 offseason at the earliest.
Grade: B+
Miami Marlins
Surprisingly, the Marlins are moving a second starting pitcher in as many weeks. Miami is clearly seeking to prioritize adding hitting prospects into its system, acquiring the quartet of Lewis, Brendan Jones, Dylan Jasso and Juan Matheus.
Lewis, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenethal, was a name that Miami was seeking from the Yankees in talks for Cabrera. The 22-year-old outfielder was a 13th-round pick in 2024 out of Queens University of Charlotte. He posted a .237/.321/.445 slash line with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 2025.
Jones is ranked as the No. 15 prospect in New York’s system, per MLB.com. He hit for a combined .245/.359/.395 line between High-A and Double-A with 51 stolen bases in 60 attempts in 2025.
MLB.com ranks Jasso as the 23rd prospect in the Yankees’ system. The former undrafted prospect hit .257/.326/.400 with 13 homers in Double-A in 2025.
Matheus finished with a .275/.365/.376 line with 40 stolen bases in A-ball last season.
Despite trading Weathers and Cabrera in the last two weeks, the Marlins still have former Cy Young pitcher Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez atop the rotation for 2025. Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer should slot into the 3-4 pitching slots, while prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling reached Triple-A in 2025 and could crack the rotation sometime in 2026.
Grade: A-
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The San Francisco Giants are in the market for a second baseman as they look to improve their roster ahead of the 2026 season.
San Francisco has reportedly been linked to both the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and the Chicago Cubs’ Nico Hoerner, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, as the Giants continue to engage in trade discussions around MLB.
Passan said on X, formerly Twitter, that the Giants are ‘aggressively pursuing’ a second baseman.
Brendan Donovan 2025 stats
Donovan to the Giants has been whispered throughout the offseason.
It’s no secret that the soon-to-be 29-year-old was on the market, and San Francisco wanted to upgrade the second base position.
Donovan hit a career-best .287 with 10 homers, 32 doubles and 50 RBIs in 118 games in 2025. He proved to be a team leader for the Cardinals, both on and off the field, and was named an All-Star.
Donovan won a Gold Glove Award in 2022.
He ranked in MLB’s 96th percentile in batted balls being squared up (36.8%) and in MLB’s 95th percentile in whiff rate (13.4%) in 2025, according to Baseball Savant. He struck out just 13% of the time, which ranked in MLB’s 92nd percentile.
Nico Hoerner 2025 stats
Given the Cubs are signing Alex Bregman, there’s a likely chance that Hoerner is traded.
If Hoerner is dealt to the Giants, it would be a Bay Area homecoming for him. Hoerner is an Oakland native and later enrolled at Stanford University, where he played college baseball.
Hoerner, a seven-year MLB veteran, has been in the big leagues since his debut in 2019.
Last season, Hoerner had a batting average of .297 with seven home runs, 29 doubles and 61 RBIs in 156 games played. According to Baseball Savant, Hoerner ranked in MLB’s 96th percentile for batted balls (36.5%), as did Donovan. Hoerner’s whiff rate (11.2%) is in the 99th percentile in MLB. He also ranked in the 99th percentile in strikeouts (7.6%).
Latest Giants rumors and transactions
The Giants have made a couple of moves during this offseason.
San Francisco added to its bullpen, signing right-handed pitcher Tyler Mahle to a one-year deal on Jan. 5. A month before the Mahle signing, the Giants worked out a deal to bring in Adrian Houser on a two-year deal.
The Giants are looking to improve their infield and are sure to be buyers this offseason as spring training continues to slowly approach.
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Seminole Police Department officers arrested Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison early in the morning on Jan. 12, Hillsborough (Florida) County Sheriff’s Office records show.
According to the sheriff’s office records, police arrested Addison at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Tampa on a first-degree misdemeanor allegation of trespassing in an occupied structure or conveyance.
Police released the Vikings’ wideout at 2:40 p.m. after he paid bail for a $500 cash bond, less then 11 hours after his arrest at 3:46 a.m. and seven hours after police booked him at 7:33 a.m, according to the publicly available records.
Addison’s agent, Tim Younger, posted a statement to social media on Jan. 13: ‘On Jordan’s behalf, his legal team has already initiated the investigation, identified witnesses, and we are reviewing the viability of a claim for false arrest. He looks forward to the legal process and upon full investigation, we are confident Mr. Addison will be exonerated.’
The incident marks the third run-in with police Addison has had in the last four years.
Before his rookie year in 2023, Minnesota State Patrol cited Addison for speed and reckless driving when an officer observed the Vikings’ wide receiver driving 140 mph in a 55 mph speed limit zone. He pleaded guilty to a petty misdemeanor speeding charge and paid a $686 fine in addition to having his license suspended for six months.
In 2024, California Highway Patrol officers arrested Addison under suspicion of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI). An officer found the wide receiver asleep at the wheel of his car, which was blocking traffic on Interstate 105 near Los Angeles International Airport. About two weeks later, police charged Addison with two misdemeanors: driving under the influence of alcohol and driving with blood-alcohol content over California’s legal limit of .08 percent.
Addison agreed to a plea deal for a lesser, ‘wet reckless’ charge, which is a reckless driving charge acknowledging the influence of alcohol. It carries less severe penalties than a DUI and does not result in a DUI conviction being recorded on a criminal record, according to legalclarity.org. The NFL suspended Addison for the first three games of the 2025 season following his guilty plea.
The Vikings wide receiver finished the 2025 season with 12 starts in 14 games and career lows in receptions (42), yards (610) and touchdowns (3). He also rushed twice for a career-high 81 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.
(This story has been updated with new information.)
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After an exciting wild-card weekend, just eight teams still have a chance to win Super Bowl 60.
The landscape across the NFL shifted considerably during the wild-card round. Notably, the Philadelphia Eagles – the reigning Super Bowl champions who entered the playoffs with the fourth-shortest Super Bowl odds – were upset by the San Francisco 49ers, slightly shifting the power structure atop the NFC.
Elsewhere, the Buffalo Bills’ advancement to the divisional round after a 27-24 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars has them climbing the AFC pecking order.
Here’s a look at how the teams remaining in the 2025 NFL playoff race stack up based on their odds to win Super Bowl 60.
NFL rankings by Super Bowl odds
All odds listed are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook. Access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a complete list.
1. Seattle Seahawks (+300)
The Seahawks remain the betting favorite to win Super Bowl 60. Seattle got a week off during the wild-card round after earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed behind a defense that ranked No. 2 overall in defensive EPA per play, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. They now draw a divisional-round matchup against a 49ers team they beat 17-3 in Week 18 to officially win the NFC West and the conference’s No. 1 seed.
2. Los Angeles Rams (+320)
The Rams got a scare from the 8-9 Carolina Panthers in the wild-card round, but bettors aren’t shying away from backing Sean McVay’s squad. Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level as part of a balanced offense that has gotten plenty of production out of Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams this season. Their defense has allowed 30 points per game over its last five outings, but Sean McVay’s offense – which leads the NFL in scoring at 30.7 points per game – is plenty good enough to carry the team to victory.
3. Buffalo Bills (+550)
The Bills edged the Jaguars in the divisional round and are now favored to win the AFC. Josh Allen has the best combination of talent and experience among the quarterbacks remaining on the AFC side of the bracket, so it’s easy to see why the sportsbooks like Buffalo. Still, the Bills have some defensive issues – particularly on the ground, where they allow 137.2 yards per game, fifth-most in the NFL – that could trip them up.
4. New England Patriots (+600)
New England’s defense dominated in a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round. Will they be able to continue doing so if Christian Gonzalez has to miss time because of a concussion? That remains to be seen. The Patriots will also need Drake Maye to perform better – a fact the 23-year-old quarterback acknowledged – after he committed two turnovers and was sacked five times against the Chargers.
5. Denver Broncos (+750)
The Broncos have dropped to No. 3 in the AFC pecking order after drawing the Bills in the divisional round. Denver is well-rested after a bye and should be able to bother Allen with a pass rush that generated a league-high 68 sacks in 2025. Any hope of the Broncos making a Super Bowl run will rest on their defense playing well and getting a home-field edge from playing at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium.
6. Houston Texans (+850)
The Texans have the NFL’s No. 1-ranked defense in terms of EPA per play, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. So long as C.J. Stroud and Houston’s offense can be efficient, the Texans will have a chance to prove true the old ‘defense wins championships’ mantra.
7. Chicago Bears (+1400)
Caleb Williams just led the Bears to an 18-point, come-from-behind win against the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round. It marked the team’s seventh fourth-quarter comeback win of the season. Can Chicago continue to deliver in those spots? It won’t be easy as the team’s bottom-six pressure defense prepares to face Stafford, a quarterback who is elite when kept clean, and the Rams.
8. San Francisco 49ers (+2000)
The 49ers upset the Eagles despite pressuring Jalen Hurts just six times. San Francisco has the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, so the team’s struggles in the area were hardly a surprise. Unless Robert Saleh can scheme up a way to generate more heat on opposing quarterbacks, it will be hard for the 49ers to contain top offenses. Add in the absence of George Kittle (torn Achilles) on the other side of the ball and it’s easy to see why oddsmakers aren’t bullish on the 49ers.
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Andy Schectman, president of Miles Franklin, breaks down recent silver market dynamics, including the massive rise in entities standing for delivery of physical metal, increased CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) margin requirements and China’s silver export controls.
‘We’re beginning to see at the highest level a change of mentality, a change of perception of what these metals truly are,’ he said in the interview.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Iron ore prices have strengthened since bottoming out in September 2024, but the base metal faced headwinds in 2025 as tariff threats and investor uncertainty weighed on the market.
Usage in steel makes iron ore one of the most widely used and essential materials in the world, and as a result its fortune is highly dependent on the strength of the construction and manufacturing sectors.
Iron ore has also seen increased demand from electric vehicle (EV) batteries over the last several years.
Among all countries, China leads the world in steel production, but lacks domestic supply to meet demand; it is also the world’s largest importer of base metals. As one of the biggest manufacturing bases and a significant source of demand for construction and EV production, China exerts considerable influence on iron ore prices.
Additionally, as 2026 begins, the definitive period for the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is starting — it will apply levies to high-carbon imports such as steel.
How did iron ore prices perform in 2025?
Iron ore started 2025 at US$99.44 per metric ton (MT) on January 6, then hit US$107.26 on February 12.
The start of March saw a steep decline for prices as they retreated toward the US$100 mark, then climbed back to US$104.25 on April 2; a rout in the base metals market saw prices fall to US$99.05 on April 9.
While other metals recovered, iron ore continued to track lower, reaching US$97.41 on May 5 and ultimately sinking to a yearly low of US$93.41 on July 1. During the third quarter, iron ore prices gained momentum, rising above the US$100 mark in August and reaching a quarterly high of US$106.08 on September 8.
Prices were largely rangebound in Q4, dropping below US$104 only once on November 7, then recovering to post a yearly high of US$107.88 on December 4. Prices had retreated to US$106.13 by December 5.
Key iron ore price drivers in 2025
All in all, prices for iron ore didn’t fare too badly in 2025.
The biggest factor affecting growth was a significant fall-off during the first half of the year as pressures mounted from a continuing slump in the Chinese property sector and the threat of US tariffs.
The Chinese real estate sector has been in steep decline since 2021, when two of the nation’s top developers — Country Garden and Evergrande — declared bankruptcy after incurring hundreds of billions of dollars in debt. Since then, the government has introduced various stimulus measures, but has failed to turn the sector around.
As mentioned, because of the sheer size of the property market in China, it is a significant demand driver for steel products and has an outsized influence on the global iron ore market.
Another noteworthy headwind for iron ore price levels this past year was the threat of US tariffs. In early April, US President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, which applied a 10 percent levy across the board, and threatened retaliatory tariffs to close trade deficits with most countries.
The move sparked fears of a global recession and triggered a rout in equities and commodities markets, sending prices plunging. However, most markets rebounded quickly as plans were dialed back after a squeeze in the bond market that sent 10 year treasury yields up by more than half a percentage point.
Further iron ore price pressures came later in the year, when the massive Simandou mine in Guinea shipped its first iron ore, destined for smelters in China, on December 2.
Two consortia of companies own the mine. Blocks three and four have a 45/40/15 ownership split between Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO), Chinalco and the Guinea government, and blocks one and two have a 45/35/20 split between Winning International, China Hongquiao Group (HKEX:1378,OTCPL:CHHQF) and United Mining Supply.
The mine will ramp up production over the next 30 months, and is expected to produce 15 million to 20 million MT in 2026 and 40 million to 50 million MT in 2027.
What trends will move the iron ore market in 2026?
“Construction accounts for about 50 percent of steel consumption in terms of end users. The weakness of the property market has, of course, weighed on steel demand and therefore pig iron production. However, the driver for China’s steel production has been industrialisation and urbanisation during the past two decades,” he said.
Sardain went on to state that despite a shift in focus from fixed assets to manufacturing, services and technology, overall steel demand is set to move lower. Although the decline won’t last forever and the property market will stabilize, the effect of even a mild rebound on steel production will be limited:
“However, steel production and iron ore demand have been supported by strong exports in markets such as Southeast Asia, East Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa, mitigating the impact of a lower domestic steel demand. Whether steel exports can increase from their current level is debatable, and we forecast a lower steel production in China over time.’
On the tariff front, US levies aren’t likely to have much impact. Sardain pointed out that while US steel demand exceeds its production capacity, Chinese imports remain a minimal factor.
Meanwhile, the US is primarily producing steel in lower-carbon electric arc furnaces from ferrous scrap.
Although steel tariffs from Canada and Brazil are set at 25 and 50 percent, respectively, both countries have exemptions for iron ore pellets, and Canadian ferrous scrap is covered under CUSMA provisions.
But with the trade pact set to be renegotiated in 2026, it’s uncertain what it means for steel and, by extension, iron products, in the midterm. The best-case scenario is that Canadian steel will receive an exemption.
Still, the risk remains that current CUSMA blanket exemptions will be removed, allowing the US to apply additional tariffs on Canadian goods crossing the border. Likewise, in Europe, the CBAM came into effect on January 1, 2026.
While the impact may take some time to work through the market, it will still have downstream effects for producers that want to avoid tariffs on imported products. This may be one reason Chinese steel producers are switching from higher-carbon blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces in the smelting process.
“Currently, electric arc furnaces account for about 12 percent of China’s steel production, set to increase to 18 percent by the first part of the next decade,” Sardain said, noting that China is looking to cap its emissions by 2030.
The main challenge for iron ore is waning demand, as the primary input for electric arc furnaces is scrap steel, not raw iron. “Countries which will see their steel production increasing (primarily India, but to some extent Russia, Brazil or Iran) are not iron ore importers because they are self-sufficient. Steel production in the EU is flat to lower with more production coming from electric arc furnaces as part of the decarbonisation process,” Sardain said.
Soft demand growth, however, is expected to meet increasing mine supply, further dragging on prices in 2026.
Sardain suggested that all major iron ore miners will increase their production in 2026, with the largest boost coming from Guinea’s Simandou, which could shake up supply chains.
“The blocks one and two are owned by a Chinese-Singaporean consortium. It will provide China with the opportunity to diversify its supply from the major Australian producers (something that the country tried to do for the past 15 years unsuccessfully) and it will shift the supply-demand momentum in favour of China,” he said.
Additionally, the mine is important because of its 65 percent iron content.
Iron ore price forecast for 2026
Sardain expects iron ore prices to remain muted in 2026.
“We believe that price should drop below the US$100 per MT mark, although it could stay above this level in H1 due to seasonality … so, overall, prices staying between US$100 to US$105 per MT in H1, then declining below US$100 per MT in H2, with the ramp-up of the Simandou mine being a determining factor,” he said.
This is largely in line with estimates from other firms. BMI is predicting a 2026 price of US$95, while RBC Capital Markets sees iron ore averaging US$98; the overall consensus stands at US$94.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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